Happy New year to everyone. Here is a copy of the analysis I provided to members of my forex mentor program in the members area on the 29th December 2013. Already the Cad has shot off a few 100 pips in the direction I was expecting woohoo! 🙂  unfortunately it missed my entry by a handful of pips and I missed it boo hoo 🙁

However this analysis is based on what I think will happen over the coming weeks and months and therefore I will either wait for price to pull back once more OR follow the move and look for retracements to new areas of support. It is my analysis, thoughts and projections. It is NOT trading tips nor advice. You need to make your own decisions. Learn how to do your own analysis, both technical and fundamental and make your own trade calls.

I was a little more successful with my short of the Euro/Gbp which is currently 120 pips in profit, however I have taken some profits and moved stops as today sees Eurozone interest rate news and tomorrow is NFP Friday which could see some wild swings. Once again if price does pull back north I am expecting the Euro/Gbp to drop to around 0.7700 in 2014 so its one of those I will look to short as often as possible.

So I am looking for longs on the Cad which I believe could move as high as 1.200+ brave call BUT I remember trading this when it was up around 1.300 so technically its a distinct possibility.

In 2013 I traded wherever possible from daily and occasionally weekly charts. My goal in 2014 is to trade where possible from weekly analysis. Place trades after the market opens (checking there are no extreme moves nor gaps first) then walk away! I have started to use the trade manager that Omar recommended and this is making my trade management much easier AND it means I can simply place trades on a Sunday evening and walk away. I then have no reason to interfere with trades/let my emotions affect my decisions and I hope this will lead me to being able to stay in trades longer and bank more profits, it certainly looks promising in the short time I have been using it.

Here is Omars review and video about using the Trade Manager CLICK HERE 

More Currency Anticipated Moves – explained in more detail in the video and in forex mentor pros members area:

Gbp/$: I am expecting the Gbp to gain against the $USA as well as the Euro in 2014. The Uk economy appears to be recovering better and of course their government has the advantage over EU members in that it can control its own money supply. Spain for example (where I live) and other PIIGS countries would have been far more able to fight the crisis if it had the option to devalue its currency, as an EU member thats not possible.

Ideally with the Gbp/$ I would like a pull back to long at 1.600 for a BIG move upwards. If it doesn’t get that far then current area of interest is 1.6300

$/Yen: I am only looking to long the ideal entry would be back to 100.00 doesn’t seem likely know but 12 months is a long time. If not any retracements on the way up. At the time of writing (29th December) 103.00 looks a good area. if it simply sets up then we need to follow it and look for new areas of support.

Euro/$ I am neutral which is “expert” speak for “I  have no idea”! Whilst it looks bullish at the moment from a technical perspective, I live in the Eurozone and know there are a lot more “skeletons in the closet.” I am amazed that Italy seems to continue to fly under the radar, but I suspect that their economy is in even worse shape than Spains was. I expect them or one of the other larger states to struggle this year. There is a major bank test due out soon that could also rock the Euro and there is a distinct fear of deflation that could result in negative interest rates. Personally I think it would be foolish to make predictions about the Euro at the moment.

Aud: My bias is to look for shorts. The RBA has already stated that they would like an exchange rate around 0.8500 so thats a big clue as to where they want to drive it! As ever where to look for entries? Clear breaks of 0.8900 would be one. The preferred entry for me would be a pull back and 0.9550 would be ideal. if price doesn’t quite get there then 0.9400 was a very strong previous area of support and resistance.

Thats it! Lets see how it pans out. Remember when trading from monthly or weekly charts you need to have lots of patience and discipline but just one or two home runs in a year can give excellent returns!

If you would like to know how to trade from longer timeframes check out this article “How to Trade From Weekly Charts”

Author: Marc Walton